Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11851/1093
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dc.contributor.authorEkşi, Ozan-
dc.contributor.authorOrman, Cüneyt-
dc.contributor.authorTaş, Bedri Kamil Onur-
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-23T05:53:20Z
dc.date.available2019-05-23T05:53:20Z
dc.date.issued2017-06
dc.identifier.citationEkşi, O., Orman, C., & Taş, B. K. O. (2017). Has the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbooks changed over time?. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(2).en_US
dc.identifier.issn1935-1690
dc.identifier.othernumber of pages 25
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2016-0130-
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11851/1093-
dc.description.abstractWe investigate how the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve Greenbooks has changed relative to commercial forecasters between 1974 and 2009. To this end, we analyze time-variation in the Greenbook coefficients in forecast encompassing regressions. Assuming that model coefficients change continuously, we estimate unobserved components models using Bayesian inference techniques. To verify that our results do not depend on the specific way change is modeled, we also allow the coefficients to change discretely rather than continuously and test for structural breaks using classical inference techniques. We find that the Greenbook forecasts have been consistently superior to the commercial forecasts at all horizons throughout our sample period. Although the forecasting performance gap has narrowed at more distant horizons after the early-to-mid 1980s, it remains significant.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWalter De Gruyter Gmbhen_US
dc.relation.ispartofB E Journal Of Macroeconomicsen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectevaluating forecastsen_US
dc.subjectspf inflation forecastsen_US
dc.subjecttime-variation in coefficientsen_US
dc.subjectgreenbook inflation forecastsen_US
dc.titleHas the Forecasting Performance of the Federal Reserve's Greenbooks Changed Over Time?en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.departmentFaculties, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economicsen_US
dc.departmentFakülteler, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümütr_TR
dc.identifier.volume17
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.authorid0000-0001-5418-777X-
dc.authorid0000-0002-0167-8273-
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000414651900009en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85029235031en_US
dc.institutionauthorTaş, Bedri Kamil Onur-
dc.institutionauthorEkşi, Ozan-
dc.identifier.doi10.1515/bejm-2016-0130-
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2-
item.openairetypeArticle-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextnone-
item.fulltextNo Fulltext-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
crisitem.author.dept04.01. Department of Economics-
crisitem.author.dept04.01. Department of Economics-
Appears in Collections:İktisat Bölümü / Department of Economics
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection
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