Erdoğan's Bid to Re-Establish Dominance After His Pyrrhic Victory

Abstract

This article examines President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's actions since he barely survived the May 2023 election. It argues that although Erdogan's authoritarian personality and conservative Islamist ideology drive his foreign policy, his pyrrhic victory and Turkey's economic problems have forced him to rebalance the country's regional and bilateral relations with Arab and Western states. The analysis first explains Erdogan's re-election strategy to demonstrate his authoritarian personality and desire to retain power. It then shows how the election results and Turkey's economic challenges have shaped Erdogan's pragmatic U-turns in foreign policy since the campaign. From there, the article assesses the president's near-term strategies for municipal elections and other challenges in domestic politics. It concludes that Erdogan's overconfidence is constrained by Turkish economic stresses, though the direction of foreign policy remains unclear.