Scope, Drivers and Manifestations of the Realist Turn in Turkish Foreign Policy: a Case of Delayed Strategic Adjustment

Abstract

Turkish foreign policy has been on a steep-learning curve since 2015, whereby reliance on hard power has come to undergird its external conduct. Through a levels-of-analysis framework, the article will delineate its meaning, boundaries, and limitations, and problematize how it fits into underlying trends in Turkish foreign policy and security culture. It will argue that while the literature highlights the quest for strategic autonomy, middle power activism, realist turn, and militarization as the main characteristics of the qualitative change, it was the convergence of these longer-term trends and especially the increased propensity to use coercive instruments as part of a realist turn that defined this period. The discussion section will offer a plausible account of the transformation, drawing on insights from neoclassical realism. It will argue that the post-2015 transformation of Turkish behaviour represents an adjustment failure, namely a delayed reaction to external-systemic contingencies by devising corresponding strategies.