Stochastic Analysis and Validation Under Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties

Abstract

An uncertainty quantification and validation framework is presented to account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in stochastic simulations of turbine engine components. The spatial variability of the uncertain geometric parameters obtained from coordinate measuring machine data of manufactured parts is represented as aleatory uncertainty. Porosity and defects in the manufactured parts based on micro CT-scanned images are represented as epistemic uncertainty. A stochastic upscaling method and probability box approach are integrated to propagate both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties from fine models to coarse models to quantify the homogenized elastic modulus uncertainties. The framework is applied for a turbine blade example and validated by modal frequency experiments of the manufactured blade samples. A validation approach, called mean curve validation method, is utilized to effectively compare the p-box of the predictions with the experimental results. The application results show that the proposed framework can significantly reduce the complexity of the engineering problem as well as produce accurate results when both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties exist in the problem.