Turkey and the Idlib Crisis: Lingering Dilemmas and Future Prospects

Abstract

The military stalemate in the northwest governorate of Idlib remains one of the main challenges before Turkey's engagement in the Syrian crisis. Assad regime's offensive to reassert its control over the opposition-controlled territory earlier this year triggered a military intervention by Turkey. Although relative calm prevails since the 5 March 2020 Moscow deal, which prevented further military escalation and introduced a security mechanism, there remain many uncertainties about the humanitarian, political, and security risks surrounding the Idlib crisis. The deepening catastrophe in Idlib is definitely not a unilateral 'Turkish problem, as the transatlantic community has many stakes in its unfolding. Nonetheless, Turkey continues to shoulder the responsibility of managing the humanitarian, political, and security risks.