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Title: Expectations, Use and Judgmental Adjustment of External Financial and Economic Forecasts: An Empirical Investigation
Authors: Gönül, Sinan
Önkal, Dilek
Goodwin, Paul
Keywords: Judgmental Adjustments
Forecast source
Forecast quality
Issue Date: 2009
Publisher: Wiley
Abstract: A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN: 0277-6693
Appears in Collections:İşletme Bölümü / Department of Management
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

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