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Title: A currency crisis and its perception with fuzzy C-means
Authors: Özkan, İbrahim
Türkşen, İsmail Burhan
Canpolat, Naci
Keywords: currency crises
fuzzy system modeling
perception based decision making
Issue Date: 2008
Publisher: Elsevier Science Inc
Abstract: In this paper, we attempt to analyze currency crises within the decision theory framework. In this regard, we employ fuzzy system modeling with fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering to develop perception based decision matrix. We try to build a prescriptive model in order to determine the best approximate reasoning schemas. We use the underlying behavior of the market participants during the crisis. With this analysis, we form the dictionary catalogs to construct a perception based payoff matrix. As an illustrative example, we used data from Turkish economy that covers two currency crises. The results show that market participants' dictionary catalogs based on perception knowledge extracted from the first crisis help participants to perceive the rise in market uncertainty. When the expectations are revised accordingly a speculative attack becomes inevitable. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
ISSN: 0020-0255
Appears in Collections:Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü / Department of Industrial Engineering
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

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