Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11851/7073
Title: Modelling personal cautiousness during the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study for Turkey and Italy
Authors: Bulut, Hatice
Gölgeli, Meltem
Atay, Fatihcan M.
Keywords: COVID-19
Epidemic model
Local stability
Personal cautiousness
Issue Date: 2021
Publisher: Springer
Abstract: Although policy makers recommend or impose various standard measures, such as social distancing, movement restrictions, wearing face masks and washing hands, against the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, individuals follow these measures with varying degrees of meticulousness, as the perceptions regarding the impending danger and the efficacy of the measures are not uniform within a population. In this paper, a compartmental mathematical model is presented that takes into account the importance of personal cautiousness (as evidenced, for example, by personal hygiene habits and carefully following the rules) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two countries, Turkey and Italy, are studied in detail, as they share certain social commonalities by their Mediterranean cultural codes. A mathematical analysis of the model is performed to find the equilibria and their local stability, focusing on the transmission parameters and investigating the sensitivity with respect to the parameters. Focusing on the (assumed) viral exposure rate, possible scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 are examined by varying the viral exposure of incautious people to the environment. The presented results emphasize and quantify the importance of personal cautiousness in the spread of the disease.
URI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-06320-7
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11851/7073
ISSN: 0924-090X
1573-269X
Appears in Collections:Matematik Bölümü / Department of Mathematics
PubMed İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / PubMed Indexed Publications Collection
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

Show full item record

CORE Recommender

SCOPUSTM   
Citations

1
checked on Sep 23, 2022

WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations

5
checked on Sep 24, 2022

Page view(s)

22
checked on Dec 26, 2022

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric


Items in GCRIS Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.