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Title: Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy
Authors: Özlale, Ümit
Pekkurnaz, Didem
Keywords: Oil prices
Current account balances
Turkish economy
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: Elsevier Sci Ltd
Abstract: Although there has been an increasing number of studies about the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic performances, the literature on the interaction between oil prices and current account is limited, especially for oil importing developing countries. This paper analyzes the impact of oil prices on the current account balances for the Turkish economy using a structural vector autoregression model. Our model allows us to identify the net effect of oil prices on current account balances after controlling for other factors such as output gap and exchange rate misalignment. The results show that the response of current account ratio to oil price shock increases gradually up to the first three months and then starts to decrease, which indicates a significant effect of oil price shocks in the short-run. Moreover, when the obtained structural shocks are employed in a simple regression analysis, the parameter regarding the oil price shocks is found to be negative and statistically significant. The final section discusses the policy implications of the results. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
ISSN: 0301-4215
Appears in Collections:Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Uluslararası Girişimcilik Bölümü / Department of International Entrepreneurship
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

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